As of this week, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas has begun providinge weekly updates regarding load pattern changes due to COVID-19 across the region. Updates will be available on the Trending Topics page of the ERCOT website in the Presentations & Other section.
ERCOT began monitoring impacts directly related to COVID-19 during the week of March 8. While there has been little impact to daily peaks, ERCOT officials say the morning load has remained consistently lower between the hours of 6:00 a.m and 10:00 a.m. The morning loads are currently 6-to-10-percent lower than what the forecast model would typically predict after accounting for normal model errors.
“The overall load reduction for the ERCOT region has leveled off over the past two weeks,” said ERCOT Manager of Load Forecasting and Analysis Calvin Opheim. “Based on the data analyzed from the weeks of March 22 and 29, weekly energy use is down by approximately two percent.”
Any changes to the summer peak load forecast will be announced in mid-May when ERCOT releases its final summer Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy and the Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report. A specific release date has not yet been set.